Abstract:
Sea level rise is a common threat to all coastal zones in the world. By establishing a vulnerability assessment system which takes parameters such as ground elevation, land subsidence rate, gully density, surface slope, population density, gross domestic product (GDP) density, building density and patch density as the indicators and by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the coastal area vulnerability index model, the vulnerability situation of the coastal zone caused by the sea-level rising in Dongying City, Shandong Province is evaluated. The results show that the mild and moderately vulnerable areas are 2 134.79 km
2 and 1 967.61 km
2 respectively, accounting for a relatively large proportion in the evaluation area and making up about 33.09% and 30.50% of the evaluation area respectively. The heavy and low-degree vulnerable areas have an area of 1 061.18 km
2 and 891.80 km
2 respectively, making up 16.45% and 13.82% of the evaluation area respectively. The extremely vulnerable area is the smallest, being 396.31 km
2 and accounting for only 6.14% of the evaluation area. Among the counties and districts of Dongying City, Dongying District is almost completely covered by the heavy and extremely vulnerable areas, indicating that this district would be most seriously threatened by the sea level rise. In Guangrao County there are also many areas belonging to the heavy and extremely vulnerable areas. Within Hekou District the vulnerability degree is high in the east and low in the west. The vulnerability in Kenli District is in general relatively low. Lijin County is the area where the vulnerability is the lowest, with most parts of the county belonging to the mild and low-degree vulnerable areas and having no the heavy or extremely vulnerable areas. The results of the vulnerability assessment should be fully taken into account in the process of future economic development and urban planning in each district and county of Dongying City, so that the targeted response measures could be taken. This study can provide technical support for moderate planning of coastal protection projects and sustainable development of the city.