基于熵权优劣解距离模型(TOPSIS)的海洋资源环境承载力评价以潍坊市为例

    Evaluation of Marine Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS Model: Taking Weifang City as the Example

    • 摘要: 海洋资源环境承载力是评价海洋资源环境系统承载人类活动的能力指标。为掌握潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力水平变化趋势和关键影响因素,从海洋经济发展、海洋资源承载和海洋环境承载三个子系统选取25个指标构建海洋资源环境承载力评价体系,采用熵权优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)模型对潍坊市2010—2019年海洋资源环境承载力及3个子系统承载力水平进行评价,利用灰色关联度方法分析各项指标与海洋资源环境承载力的相关程度并确定关键影响因素。结果表明:2010—2019年潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力水平总体上呈波动上升趋势,2010—2012年略微下降,2013—2016年上升趋势明显,2017年有所下滑,之后稳步上升。其中,海洋经济发展水平呈稳步上升趋势,海洋资源承载呈波动中下滑趋势,海洋资源承载压力较大,海洋环境承载水平整体呈波动上升趋势,且与潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力变化趋势基本一致。影响海洋资源环境承载力的关键因素是工业废水排放达标率和单位面积工业废水排放量。因此,潍坊市应立足本地区资源环境禀赋科学地发展海洋经济,制定中长期的海洋强市发展规划,同时重点做好海洋资源的可持续利用和海洋生态环境保护,推动海洋经济高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: Marine resources and environmental carrying capacity is an index to assess the ability of marine resources and environment systems to carry human activities. In order to uncover the changing trends and key influencing factors of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity in Weifang City, an evaluation system of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity is constructed by selecting 25 indicators from three subsystems of marine economic development, marine resources carrying capacity and marine environmental carrying capacity. Then, the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity and the capacity levels of the three subsystems in Weifang during 2010—2019 are evaluated by using entropy weight TOPSIS model. The correlation degree between the evaluation indicators and the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity is analyzed by using gray correlation method and the key influencing factors are identified. The results show that as a whole the carrying capacity level of marine resources and environment in Weifang showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2019, of which a slightly decreasing trend occurred from 2010 to 2012, an obvious upward trend from 2013 to 2016, a decline trend in 2017 and afterward maintained a steady upward trend. The development level of marine economy showed a steady upward trend, whereas the carrying capacity of marine resources had a fluctuating downward trend. Obviously, the carrying pressure of marine resources is great. The level of the marine environmental carrying capacity is overall in a fluctuating rising state, which is basically consistent with the changing trend of marine resources and environmental carrying capacity in Weifang. The key factors affecting the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity in Weifang are the compliance rate of industrial wastewater discharge and the amount of industrial wastewater discharged per unit area. It is, therefore, suggested that the scientific development of marine economy in Weifang should be on the basis of the local resources and environmental endowment and formulate a medium- and long-term marine strong city development plan. Meanwhile, the sustainable utilization of marine resources and the protection of marine ecological environment should also be focused, so that the high-quality development of marine economy in Weifang can be promoted.

       

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