中国沿海城市洪水危险性评价及空间分异研究

    Research on Flood Hazard Assessment and Spatial Heterogeneity of Coastal Cities in China

    • 摘要: 在气候变化与快速城镇化的双重驱动下,中国沿海城市洪水灾害风险日益加剧,其空间分异特征及形成机制亟需从国家尺度进行系统解析。本研究以中国沿海城市为研究对象,通过构建洪水危险性指标评价体系,运用CRITIC法确定指标客观权重,并结合TOPSIS模型对54个沿海城市进行洪水危险性综合评价,进而引入地理探测器模型,揭示其空间分异特征及驱动机制。研究结果表明,中国沿海城市洪水危险性呈现“南高北低、局部集聚”的空间格局,高危险性城市主要集中于长三角、珠三角等高强度城镇化地区;河网密度、地表不透水率及沿海低地面积占比是洪水危险性空间分异的主导因子,气候因子虽单独解释力有限,但其与地形、下垫面因子的交互作用显著增强了洪水危险性空间分异。研究结果可为沿海城市差异化防洪减灾规划与气候适应型城市治理提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Under the combined pressures of climate change and rapid urbanization, flood risk in China’s coastal cities has intensified substantially, necessitating a systematic investigation of its spatial heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms at the national scale. Taking coastal cities in China as the research subjects, this study constructs a flood hazard evaluation index system. The CRITIC method is employed to determine the objective weights of the indicators, and the TOPSIS method is applied to comprehensively assess flood hazard levels for 54 coastal cities across China. Furthermore, the geographical detector model is used to characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns and to identify their driving mechanisms. The results reveal a spatial pattern characterized by higher flood hazard levels in southern regions and lower levels in northern regions, with evident localized clustering. High-hazard cities are predominantly concentrated in highly urbanized regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. River network density, the impervious surface ratio, and the proportion of coastal lowlands are identified as the dominant factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of flood hazard. Although climatic factors exhibit limited explanatory power when considered individually, their interactions with topographic and underlying surface factors significantly enhance the spatial heterogeneity. These findings provide a scientific basis for differentiated flood prevention and disaster mitigation planning, as well as for climate-adaptive urban governance in coastal cities.

       

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