江苏沿海设计水位近似计算方法

    Estimation Method of Design Water Level in Coastal Areas of Jiangsu Province

    • 摘要: 本文采用江苏沿海12个测站的周年观测潮汐特征值,提出适用于江苏海域的两种修正经验公式(经验公式1和经验公式2),评估两种修正经验公式、JTS145—2015《港口与航道水文规范》(2022版)附录G.0.2公式(简称《规范》公式)以及乔光全公式等现有经验公式在江苏海域计算设计水位的适用性,并结合数值模型计算平均潮差,分别采用4种公式推算了江苏沿海离岸30 km处的设计水位,结果表明:在设计高水位(Design High Water Level, DHWL)推算中, 经验公式1和经验公式2在江苏全海域具有优异的适用性,平均绝对误差(MAE)均低于0.10 m,系统偏差(BIAS)低于0.02 m,结果稳定可靠;而《规范》公式与乔光全公式在误差显著偏高,其MAE分别达0.17和0.22 m,在辐射沙洲核心区海域推算值偏小0.3~0.5 m。在设计低水位(Design Low Water Level, DLWL)推算中,经验公式1与乔光全公式适用性良好,MAE均低于0.12 m,BIAS低于0.08 m;《规范》公式拟合效果较差,拟合优度R2仅为0.62,MAE达0.34 m,计算结果偏保守。研究结果可为江苏沿海地区设计水位取值提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Based on annual tidal characteristic observations from 12 hydrological stations along the Jiangsu coast, this paper evaluates the applicability of existing empirical formulas for calculating design water levels in the Jiangsu sea area, including Formula G.0.2 in Appendix G of the Code of hydrology for harbour and waterway (JTS 145—2015) and Qiao Guangquan’s formula. Two revised empirical formulas (Empirical Formula 1 and Empirical Formula 2) tailored to the Jiangsu sea area are proposed in this study.Combined with mean tidal range results derived from numerical modelling, design water levels at locations 30 km offshore along the Jiangsu coastline are calculated using the four aforementioned formulas respectively. The calculation results indicate the following conclusions: For Design High Water Level (DHWL) estimation, Empirical Formula 1 and Empirical Formula 2 deliver outstanding applicability across the entire Jiangsu coastal waters, with the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) below 0.10 m and BIAS less than 0.02 m, featuring stable and credible predictions. By contrast, the Code Formula and Qiao Guangquan formula produce notably larger errors, with respective MAE values of 0.17 m and 0.22 m; their computed values are 0.3–0.5 m lower than the actual values in the core region of the radial sand ridges.For Design Low Water Level (DLWL) calculation, Empirical Formula 1 and the Qiao Guangquan formula exhibit favourable performance, with MAE below 0.12 m and BIAS less than 0.08 m. However, the Code Formula shows poor fitting performance, with a coefficient of determination (R2)) of only 0.62 and an MAE up to 0.34 m, leading to overly conservative computed outcomes.The research findings can serve as a technical reference for the determination of design water levels in coastal Jiangsu.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回