基于实例计算的极值波高敏感性分析

    Sensitivity Analysis of Extreme Wave Heights Based on Instance Calculation

    • 摘要: 极端海况对海洋工程结构的安全威胁较大,一般通过极值理论预测一定时间范围内未来气候变化情况下的极端海况,以评估结构对极端海面风、海流和海浪的响应。而通过极值分析得到的重现期极值会因极值样本、概率分布函数及参数估计方法的差异而不同,极值的差异性会进一步影响结构的安全性和经济性。为此,利用浙江温州附近海域某一拟建风机机位点1979—2021年长达43年的水文仿真时序数据探讨了50年一遇波高对不同极值样本、概率分布函数及参数估计方法的敏感性。结果表明,在拟合效果均较优的情况下,取样方式和概率分布函数对50年一遇波高影响显著,参数估计方法相对于其他两个因素对50年一遇波高的影响较小。为保证结构安全余量,建议优先考虑极值波高的敏感性分析。在本案例中,Pearson III型分布和每年取样方式在极值估算中表现出高稳定性和低敏感性。研究结果可为合理确定重现期极值提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Extreme sea conditions pose a significant threat to the safety of offshore structures. Generally, extreme value theory is used to predict extreme sea conditions under future climate change within a certain time range for evaluating the response of structures under extreme sea surface winds, currents, and waves. The extreme values obtained through extreme value analysis will vary due to differences in extreme value samples, probability distribution functions, and parameter estimation methods, and the differences in extreme values will further affect the safety and economy of the structure. Therefore, using hydrological simulation time series data from a proposed wind turbine location in the Wenzhou Sea Area of Zhejiang Province, spanning 43 years from 1979 to 2021, to explore the sensitivity of once-in-50-year wave height to different extreme value samples, probability distribution functions, and parameter estimation methods. The results indicate that, under the condition of good fitting performance, the sampling method and the probability distribution function have a significant impact on the once-in-50-year wave height, while the parameter estimation method has a relatively small impact on once-in-50-year wave height compared to the other two factors. To ensure the safety margin of the structure, it is recommended to prioritize analyzing the sensitivity of extreme wave heights. In this case, the Pearson III distribution and annual sampling method demonstrated high stability and low sensitivity in extreme value estimation. The research results can provide a reliable reference for the accurate calculation of extreme wave heights.

       

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