基于实例计算的极值波高敏感性分析

    Sensitivity Analysis of Extreme Wave Heights Based on Instance Calculation

    • 摘要: 极端海况对海洋工程结构的安全威胁较大,一般通过极值理论预测一定时间范围内未来气候变化情况下的极端海况,以评估结构对极端海面风、海流和海浪的响应。而通过极值分析得到的重现期极值会因极值样本、概率分布函数及参数估计方法的差异而不同,极值的差异性会进一步影响结构的安全性和经济性。为此,利用浙江温州附近海域某一拟建风机机位点1979—2021年长达43年的水文仿真时序数据探讨了50年一遇波高对不同极值样本、概率分布函数及参数估计方法的敏感性。结果表明,在拟合效果均较优的情况下,取样方式和概率分布函数对50年一遇波高影响显著,参数估计方法相对于其他两个因素对50年一遇波高的影响较小。为保证结构安全余量,建议优先考虑极值波高的敏感性分析。在本案例中,Pearson III型分布和每年取样方式在极值估算中表现出高稳定性和低敏感性。研究结果可为合理确定重现期极值提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Extreme sea conditions pose a significant threat to the safety of offshore structures. Generally, the extreme sea conditions under the case of future climate change and within a certain time range are predicted by extreme value theory in order to evaluate the response of the offshore structures to the extreme sea winds, currents and waves. However, the values of extreme recurrence period obtained through the extreme value analysis may vary due to the differences in extreme value samples, probability distribution functions and parameter estimation methods, and the differences in extreme values may further affect the safety and economy of the structures. For this reason, the hydrological simulation time series data spanning 43 years from 1979 to 2021 are collected from a proposed wind turbine site located in the Wenzhou Offshore Area of Zhejiang Province and used to study the sensitivity of once-in-50-year wave height to different extreme value samples, probability distribution functions and parameter estimation methods. The results indicate that under the cases of good fitting performance, both the sampling method and the probability distribution function have a significant impact on the once-in-50-year wave height, while the parameter estimation method shows a relatively smaller impact. To ensure the safety margin of the structures, it is recommended that the sensitivity analysis of the extreme wave height should be prioritized. In this case, the Pearson III distribution and the annual sampling method show a high stability and a low sensitivity in the extreme value estimation. The results of this study can provide a reliable reference for determining the extreme recurrence period reasonably.

       

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